The UConn Huskies and St. John’s Red Storm are teed up for a Wednesday night affair in Storrs. The Huskies and Red Storm both enter the game having lost in their last games. UConn dropped one to Seton Hall while St. John’s fell this past weekend to Providence. Now each will be hoping to pivot in a different direction in an important Big East showdown.
How to watch UConn vs. St. John’s
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Watch Online: Fox Sports App
(via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Spread: UConn -11.5 | St. John’s +11.5
Moneyline: UConn -630 | St. John’s +450
UConn comes into this game as a pretty hefty favorite. The Huskies are 11.5-point faves at the sportsbook and projected to win by 11 on KenPom. Much of that disadvantage comes with the fact that UConn holds pretty significant edges in most statistical categories. They hold an edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Huskies also commit fewer turnovers per play and have a much bigger average scoring margin of +15.6 to St. John's +8.8.
Furthermore, UConn holds an edge — slight as it might be — in 3-point percentage. They also generally outrebound St. John’s at a higher rate too and defensively is where they find most of their strengths. They hold edges over the Johnnies in Opp eFG%, opp 2PT FG%, and 3PT FG% and rebounding on that end too.
What might be the biggest edge here is how each team plays in this situation. UConn has been an absolutely dominant home team this season. While the strength of schedule is worth noting, in the sense that it was poor, UConn’s average margin is +28.1. On the road, the Johnnies’ scoring margin is a deflating -6.0. Their numbers across the board are mostly down from their season averages.
Basically, St. John’s has to hope for some kind of swing and to hope that recent trends make this closer than the experts think. In the last three games, UConn’s scoring margin is just +2.0 better than the Red Storm’s (+0.3 to -2.3). St. John’s has scored 73 PPG over their last three to UConn’s 72.7. Is this a sign of things to come? If so we’re in for a close one. But if UConn’s homecourt advantage has anything to say about it, this could prove lopsided.